Based on the fact that this is a new business, in five years, the likelihood of Shawn Sine operating a successful business is c. It is likely because the chance of failure is nearly equal to the chance for success.
It has been shown by research that around 45% of businesses will close down within the first five years.
This means that 55% will still be going. This means that Shawn might be operating a successful business in five years because the chances of failure (45%) are close to those of success (55%).
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