Urn A has 3 white and 8 red balls. Urn B has 10 white and 14 red balls. We flip a fair coin. If the outcome is heads, then a ball from urn A is selected, whereas if the outcome is tails, then a ball from urn B is selected. Suppose that a white ball is selected. What is the probability that the coin landed heads?

Respuesta :

Answer:

The probability that the coin landed heads given that a white ball is selected is 0.3957.

Step-by-step explanation:

Let W = a white ball is selected.

Balls in Urn A = 3 white and 8 red = 11 balls.

Balls in Urn B = 10 white and 14 red = 24 balls.

A coin is tossed to select an urn.

If the coin turns up Heads urn A is selected and if it turns up Tails urn B is selected.

P (A) = P(B) = 0.50

Compute the probability that a white ball is selected as follows:

P (W) = P (W ∩ A) + P(W ∩ B)

        = P (White from A)×P (A) + P (White from B)×P (B)

        [tex]=[\frac{3}{11}\times0.50]+[\frac{10}{24}\times0.50] \\=0.1364+0.2083\\=0.3447[/tex]

The probability of selecting a white ball is P (W) = 0.3447.

If the coin lands Heads it implies that urn A was selected.

Then compute the probability that urn A is selected given that a white ball was selected as follows:

[tex]P(A|W)=\frac{P(W\cap A)}{P(W)}=\frac{\frac{3}{11} \times0.50}{0.3447} =0.3957[/tex]

Thus, the probability that the coin landed heads given that a white ball is selected is 0.3957.

The probability that the coin landed heads given that a white ball is selected is 0.3957.

Let W = a white ball is selected.

Balls in Urn A = 3 white and 8 red = 11 balls.

Balls in Urn B = 10 white and 14 red = 24 balls.

What is the conditional probability?

Conditional probability is the probability of one event occurring with some relationship to one or more other events.

A coin is tossed to select an urn.

When coin is tossed the we get either head or tail.

Therefore,If the coin turns up Heads urn A is selected and if it turns up Tails urn B is selected.

P (A) = P(B) = 0.50

Firstly. we have compute the probability that a white ball is selected as follows

P (W) = P (W ∩ A) + P(W ∩ B)

= P (White from A)×P (A) + P (White from B)×P (B)

[tex]=\frac{3}{11}(0.50)+\frac{10}{24}(0.50) \\=0.1364+0.2083\\=0.3447[/tex]

The probability of selecting a white ball is P (W) = 0.3447.

If the coin lands Heads it implies that urn A was selected.

Then compute the probability that urn A is selected given that a white ball we use the formula for conditional probability

P(A/W)=P(W∩A)/P(W)

[tex]=\frac{3/11(0.50)}{0.3447}[/tex]

[tex]=0.3957[/tex]

Thus, the probability that the coin landed heads given that a white ball is selected is 0.3957.

To learn more about the probability visit:

https://brainly.com/question/24756209

ACCESS MORE
ACCESS MORE
ACCESS MORE
ACCESS MORE