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A test has the capability to detect a defect with 98% accuracy. It also tends to indicate a defect when there is none about 1% of the time. About 1 in 2000 test subjects has a defect. What is the probably that a subject chosen at random and is indicated to have a defect, really does have a defect? (0.25 points)

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mirianmoses

Answer:

OUR ANSWER IS =0.0467  

Step-by-step explanation:

P(detect/defect)=0.98

P(detect/not defect)=0.01

P(defect)=1/2000=0.0005

P(not defect)=1-0.0005=0.9995

P(defect/detect)=P(detect/defect)*P(defect)/[P(detect/defect)*P(defect)+P(detect/not defect)*P(not defect)]

=0.98*0.0005/[0.98*0.0005+0.01*0.9995]

=0.00049/[0.00049+0.009995]

=0.00049/0.010485

=0.0467

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